watch this space

2007-05-06T12:45:00.000-04:00

So coincidental, it's almost creepy.

Just after my inaugural post below, I was invited by Alice Marshall to contribute to her blog, GOTV (gotv.blogspot.com). Alice and I agree about the importance of Chap Petersen's victory this November. I'll primarily blog about that race at GOTV. When I do dare to branch out from that there, I'll try to stick to politics as Alice mostly does and as the noble GOTV name befits.

I hope to tie this year's Virginia GOP to the rapidly crumbling national GOP.

I hope to enlist this year's resurgent national Dems in the effort to elect this year's Virginia Dems.

Next year, as I shift focus to the national races, I'll turn the tables, hopefully strictly positively following massive Dem victories in VA this year.

Loyal Dems, be forewarned; I'm not beholden to any candidate or party. It just so happens that I know of no GOP candidate for whom I'd vote, and I don't expect that to change any time soon. I will try to be as constructive as I can with my criticism of Dems. Without buying into the reprehensible GOP meme that 9/11 changed everything, I realize the importance of making the most of our two party, winner take all, system; so, I'll stay away from rehashing history, like the impact of Nader in 2000. I'll especially avoid such unpleasantness at GOTV.

Good ends never justify bad means. Today's GOP does not act as if it believes in that principle. To its credit, today's GOP has acted as if it will abide by the clear, un-stealable, will of the people. If the margins are big enough and the stakes are small enough, the GOP will accept defeat.

The first campaign I ever actually volunteered for was Dave Marsden's 2005 race for the VA House of Delegates. I told Dave before I signed up that he was far from my ideal candidate, but his opponent was a cookie-cutter version of a young unprincipled GOP ideologue. I could not sit by and let such a person be my representative. Dave won big (almost 60%!). It's a good feeling to realize one is in the mainstream of one's district. As a freshman Delegate, Dave and I have disagreed, sometimes uncomfortably publicly, but he truly listens and explains his positions. Unless and until someone closer to my views challenges him, that's all a constituent could ask for. And even the GOP may have gotten the message that we we're comfortable with Dave for another two years, because they have yet to announce a challenger for this November.

My VA Senate district is obviously larger and likely more diverse than my VA House of Delegates district. Jeannemarie Devolites Davis is the incumbent, not an inexperienced novice. She also doesn't act like a rabid ideologue like Michael Golden. She also has a lot of campaign money at her disposal (too much of it derived from her husband's office and position in the national GOP leadership - I'll probably post a lot on this later, both here and at GOTV but for more details see the blogwork of Andrea Chamblee and another blogger at tomdavistruth.com). On the other hand, Chap Petersen is an experienced office holder with proven popularity, and he just concluded a very impressive first quarter fundraising period. It should also be noted that in 2003 with a big money advantage against a much less well known opponent, Jeannemarie's victory margin wasn't all that impressive.

Chap ought to be regarded by independents as an acceptable alternative to Jeannemarie. His fundraising ability and how he uses that money will help in that regard. If the clamor for change we saw nationally last year can carry over to this year's VA elections, that will also help Chap.

TURNOUT IS THE KEY!

Citizens can be very unhappy with the status quo, but if they don't think their votes will make a difference, they won't bother. I'm going to do all I can to argue that replacing Jeannemarie with Chap will make a huge difference. I'm going to continue to advocate that national Dems, VA Dems, and Chap himself push that message loudly, proudly, and often.

If the voters of my VA Senate district turn out in great numbers and give a big margin to Chap, we may even see Jeannemarie and Tom retire from public life, and you won't have to read my ramblings at next year's blog, vote[challenger to be named]dumptom.blogspot.com. That's got to be a pretty good incentive in itself, no?

2007-04-13T05:43:00.000-04:00

An anonymous commenter two posts ago disputed that UMW's student newspaper, The Bullet, reported on a 2006 DUI in NJ for a William Frawley. I know and trust the person who told me otherwise.

In any event, I've read some nice things about UMW's Frawley, and I really don't have any reason to think that his troubles are really going to lead to cancelling Gingrich's appearance. Moreover, that end, however glorious, would not justify the means of picking on a possible drinking problem or otherwise violating someone's privacy, especially when the person thankfully appears to have only hurt himself. I wonder if Newt ever had these twinges of conscience when he was throwing rhetorical bombs back in the day?

I can't blog during the work day anyway, and I'm not at my best at 6am.

Between whatever additional information comes out today and any Friday night energy and lack of other plans, I may be back on this topic.

Thanks to a couple of you-know-who-you-ares for being the devil and angel on my shoulders throughout this.

Thanks for reading.

Thanks to the commenters for commenting.

2007-04-12T20:03:00.000-04:00

A brief time out from Frawley and Gingrich (see below posts for more).

It's been reported that Sen. John Warner raised only $500 (not a typo - five hundred dollars!) in the first quarter of '07.

If Warner retires, Tom Davis is going to aim for that seat. If the national Dems want to make a serious play for VA's electoral votes in '08, they should do all they can to help Chap Petersen defeat Jeannemarie Devolites Davis this year. An '07 victory for VA Dems, particularly if they gain a majority in the State Senate, could lead to Dem takeovers of Davis's U.S. House seat and Warner's U.S. Senate seat. Dems and the self-proclaimed elite (I'm talking to you Wash Post) should see these opportunities as too valuable to again waste dithering about how the Davises are good and moderate people. Of course, I don't think they're either, but they've been coasting on that bs for too long.

Chap in '07.

Mark Warner for U.S. Senate in '08.

Brian Moran for VA Governor in '09.

You all can fight about who gets Tom Davis's House seat. I think Andy Hurst deserves another shot.

2007-04-12T19:23:00.000-04:00

O.K, we've officially entered WTF territory.

Now, I hear that UMW's student newspaper, The Bullet, is reporting that a William Frawley was arrested for a DUI in New Jersey (UMW's William Frawley's hometown?) last year. If this isn't the world's biggest coincidence, UMW must have known this, possibly before even hiring Frawley as President. If so, it casts doubt on UMW's statements today about Frawley's recent behavior being "out of character." I've also heard that the e-mails sent around campus are still not giving all the details that have been reported by the Free-Lance Star.

UMW should not lie. UMW should not shield its own community from the truth. UMW can do this while still respecting Frawley's right to privacy. UMW should not compound the damage by trying to cover up bad decisions. The community deserves a full accounting.

Before Tuesday, did UMW know about a DUI arrest of Frawley in New Jersey in 2006?

When it said that Frawley left Fairfax Hospital against medical advice yesterday, did UMW really know this to be true?

Why did UMW censor its communications to the UMW community?

Did UMW consider other options than putting Frawley on paid leave?

If UMW decides to be open about all these questions, I encourage answers to my own obsession:

Who picked Gingrich to be this year's commmencement speaker?

How much is Gingrich being paid?

UMW must have known the controversial nature of the selection; why does the official announcement read like Gingrich's own bio with nothing but glowing words about Gingrich?

Does UMW care about what its decisions and public accountings thereof signify to its students and the community at large about UMW's honesty and intellectual integrity?

And, finally, assuming my wish doesn't come true, and Gingrich actually does appear, if I cover my ears, close my eyes, and stick out my tongue during Gingrich's speech, will UMW kick me out of my daughter's graduation ceremony?

2007-04-12T18:12:00.000-04:00

The Free-Lance Star has reported that in addition to yesterday's DUI charge against Frawley (see earlier posts), the incident that sent Frawley to Fairfax Hospital until yesterday morning was a car accident where he was driving and ended up upside down. He's been charged with DUI for that incident, too. UMW has put Frawley on paid leave.

For what it's worth, I've sent a tip to wonkette.com about all this, adding the stuff about Gingrich.

I know I'm biased and there are probably plenty of decent, even if ignorant or naive, people who may have chosen a big name like Gingrich. And I know if an exorbitant fee really were paid to Gingrich, some opponent at UMW would have publicized it.

Nevertheless, UMW's acting leadership has a tremendous opportunity to exploit Frawley's problems by undoing Frawley's poor decision to book Gingrich for commencement.

2007-04-11T19:19:00.000-04:00

I just sent the following to Inova Fairfax Hospital's press person, Che Parker (che.parker@inova.com). I encourage real reporters to follow up.

The Free-Lance Star has reported that this afternoon the President of the University of Mary Washington, William Frawley, was arrested and charged with DUI and refusing to take a Breathalyzer. In an e-mail message sent around UMW's campus, it is asserted that Mr. Frawley earlier today left Inova Fairfax Hospital against medical advice. It seems possible that Mr. Frawley was allowed to leave Inova Fairfax Hospital and drive when he was in no condition to do so. I think the community would benefit from a statement on this from Inova Fairfax Hospital to the media.

2007-04-11T18:32:00.000-04:00

The President of UMW was arrested this afternoon and charged with DUI and refusing to take a Breathalyzer according to a report in The Free-Lance Star. An e-mail message sent around UMW's campus only referred to police "involvement" and mentioned President Frawley's leaving Fairfax Hospital against medical advice. It seems by the Free-Lance Star report, and definitely not the UMW e-mail message referred to above, that he might be out on $1,500 bond after being charged in front of a magistrate for two misdemeanors.

Perhaps the Free-Lance Star will follow up on its reporting, in particular, asking Fairfax Hospital for its side of the story.

If it turns out that President Frawley is at least partly responsible for deciding to drive while impaired, his judgment and fitness to serve as President should be examined. Pending such an examination, someone else should act as President. That person should examine all recent decisions made by President Frawley.

If there's some reason to think that the decisions to pick Newt Gingrich to be this year's commencement speaker and, if it's true, pay an exorbitant fee to Gingrich were made by someone with impaired judgment, serious consideration should be given to revoking those decisions.

2007-04-09T18:04:00.000-04:00

There's a rumor out there that the University of Mary Washington is paying Newt Gingrich $500,000 to speak at commencement next month. Maybe someone with better investigative abilities than I can come closer to the truth.

2007-04-07T12:09:00.000-04:00

I've decided that the best way to protest the commencement address by Newt Gingrich at the University of Mary Washington on May 12 at which my wonderful daughter and fellow blogger (http://blogs.elsweb.org/amanda) Amanda will be getting her bachelor's degree is to treat the man as the joke he is. Please join me.

2007-03-25T08:32:00.000-04:00

I haven't been able to put my finger on my depression about politics lately. It had to be more than the still sorry state of Dems in my part of the country. After all, I knew what I was getting into when I moved here. I didn't choose my country. I can't say it better than Atrios:

Republicans in general and the presidential candidate especially will have to run against George Bush in '08 if they want to have any chance of actually winning control.

It's also obvious that fealty to dear leader is still an extraordinarily important thing to the 30 percenters.

It's also probable that our blessed media, who spent '00 demanding that Al Gore run away from Bill Clinton due to his hideous 65% approval ratings, will be unlikely to do that to the Republican candidate in '08.

2007-03-03T06:57:00.000-05:00

It's early Saturday morning. I didn't feel like websurfing last night. I did pay pretty close attention to the political chat shows, Hardball and The Situation Room. After checking my e-mail first thing this morning (where are you Neal?) it took me all of three clicks (NLS to Ox Road South to Raising Kaine) to find out Ann Coulter called John Edwards a faggot at yesterday's CPAC conference. After a little more poking around, I learned that Americablog reported this before 5pm yesterday. There could be a silver lining in the MSMs silence on the scandal.

This will not go away. The Dems would be foolish to let the GOP off the hook. It will be interesting, and, I predict, ultimately satisfying, to watch the GOP twist as it decides how to respond. The three GOP frontrunners are in a box on this particular slur. Giuliani will find it impossible to do other than denounce Coulter. He can flip on a lot of things, but not on gay issues. Romney, too, was a sincere-seeming gay rights supporter not long ago. McCain didn't even change his schedule to make an appearance at the CPAC event; so, it seems unlikely he'd want to hug Coulter tightly and start gay bashing.

In fact, McCain's absence yesterday gives him a great opportunity to seize the high ground. McCain could appeal to moderates by claiming the mantle of the GOP's change candidate which also has the benefit of separating himself from Bush, whom he strangely otherwise tied himself to on the war. Of course, I don't know if McCain will do this. Moreover, I hope he doesn't, because the silence from the MSM and the GOP will cement Coulter and her hate to the conservatives and Bush, and, if, as I suspect, change will be THE issue of the next elections (hopefully, including this year's VA races), Dems will romp!

2007-02-27T19:24:00.000-05:00

Dave Marsden cast a vote with which I disagree. Because he voted the same way JMDD did, I think his vote did nothing to help Chap and might hurt Chap. I commented on Chap's blog to that effect. Chap had nothing bad to say about Dave. Dave and I spoke at length. While he and I agreed to disagree about his vote, we both agreed that Chap and the other Dems need to win this November. Dave is a nice guy who was very generous with his time and views. I can't imagine another candidate for Dave's seat whom I would prefer.

LIT DROP FOR CHAP THIS SATURDAY 9AM AT LAKE BRADDOCK SECONDARY SCHOOL

2007-02-16T08:38:00.000-05:00

Thanks to Raising Kaine for posting the following excerpts from an otherwise firewall-hidden Roll Call article on Tom Davis.

*"Davis said unambiguously that he will run for the Senate in 2008 if five-term Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) decides to retire."

*On the other hand, if John Warner runs, Davis says he "would stand out front and take a bullet for him."

*"...regardless of Warner's decision [Davis] has doubts about seeking an eighth term in the House."

*Davis "has little to no interest in other statewide offices such as the governorship."

*Davis almost retired last year, but decided not to do so because it would have gone to the Democrats ("I think had I left last year, which we contemplated doing, [the seat] would have gone. I don't think there's any way you would have held the seat last year")

*Davis argues that "Republicans' old formula for getting elected - managing losses in Northern Virginia and then making it up with large margins in the rest of the state - is outdated and that his party will continue to lose if it does not accept that."

First off, Democrats have to field the best challenger possible for Warner's seat, whether he's running or not.

Secondly, not that I should have to say it, but Davis's continuing diva schtick ought to be ignored ("take a bullet," "the seat would have gone," "old formula"). If Davis ever was worthy of our votes, it's clear he is not now.

Finally, please please please, take the first step this November to boo this horrible Hamlet off the stage by voting for Chap Petersen.

2007-02-14T13:54:00.000-05:00

Particularly in light of my most recent post immediately below, I must give credit to Tom Davis for announcing his intent to vote for the pending resolution disapproving of Bush's plan. And while I'm sure this wasn't his intent, he managed to expose the wide, possibly politically fatal, rift in the GOP. He rushed to endorse the Iraq Study Group's report, the one Bush referred to as a "flaming turd." He even invoked the GOP leadership's boogeyman du jour, jihadism, but only in the context of the kind of anti-terrorism strategy, we should have adopted after 9/11 and in lieu of invading and occupying Iraq. Of course, Davis said that he voted to authorize the invasion of Iraq and still regards that as the right thing to do, but in criticizing the occupation and essentially calling for the type of redeployment favored by most voters, most Democrats and few Republicans, Davis has left Bush and his congressional cronies high and dry. All Davis has managed to do is make Virginia's far right hate him even more than they hate John Warner. Now it's more important than ever to send a signal to Davis by electing Chap Petersen to the VA Senate. If this is how Davis treats his own party, it would be the height of folly to continue to believe he'll treat us any better. He and his party foisted Bush on us and supported Bush all the way through last November at which point Bush became a lame duck. It's too little too late for Davis and his wife.

2007-02-14T08:18:00.000-05:00

I don't know if Tom Davis used his five minutes yet to speak on the resolution pending on the floor of the House. (C-SPAN's website is maintaining an archive of all the Members' speeches, and as of earlier this morning they had only Rep. Wolf's.) It is important to know, however, that no matter how skeptical Davis feels courageous enough to appear in his floor speech and regardless of whether his leadership "allows" him to vote his "conscience" and support the resolution, the House Republican leadership's true position and strategy for the debate and vote have been leaked.

The Republicans think that if Bush's latest plan (surge, escalation, reinforcement, whatever) is addressed, positively or negatively, they will have lost the debate. They advocate that the subject be changed to the dangers of Islamic jihadism and the need to "succeed" over Islamic jihadism in Iraq. It's safe to assume if Davis uses this type of rhetoric in his floor speech, that he's heeding the urging of his leadership.

As Davis continues to follow the dictates of Bush rather than truly represent our beliefs, we need to continue to express our disapproval. It's abundantly clear now, even if it apparently wasn't a few months ago, that on the most important and prominent issue of the day, Davis will not stop yielding to Bush. We may be stuck with Davis and Bush until 2009, but, however muddled it may be, I implore you to send them a message this November.

I remain confident that Andy Hurst would have been a fine representative. I believe that my fellow voters would have agreed if only they didn't come around a little too late to the realization that a Democratic Congress can begin to undo Bush's mistakes and prevent future debacles. This November we can achieve a win-win by putting a fine politician, Chap Petersen, in the Virginia Senate and telling Tom Davis, via the defeat of his wife, that we've had enough.

2007-02-08T05:47:00.000-05:00

I'm starting to think I'm too stupid to be a good blogger.

I understand the politics of Edwards hiring leftist bloggers and being criticized by the right. And I understand the politics if Edwards fires those bloggers in the face of the criticism. But I don't understand how a politician could actually use a good blogger, especially a major party candidate for President. The blogosphere is still too untamed and politically incorrect. If all this really is is a chance for armchair political staffers to join a campaign, then I don't see what the big deal is. One would expect a loose lipped blogger to toe the party line once hired by a politician. We expect politicians to lie. If bloggers, like more traditional staffers, including journalists (I'm talking to you Tony Snow), start going through the revolving door, it's their credibility that's at stake. I care less about whether Edwards retains his newly hired bloggers than whether those bloggers will be able to explain why they signed on in the first place, apart from the need to earn some money. Then again, maybe I'm wrong and Edwards will turn out to be a more amazing candidate than I think he is.

I also don't understand what the hell is going on in the Senate debate on the anti-Bush's-latest-"strategy" resolution. Perhaps the clubby atmosphere will prevail, but if Gates and Pace are willing to say that robust debate doesn't hurt the troops and that Bush's "strategy" is not the last chance for success, and if Warner and an increasing number of Republicans are willing to put down in writing that they essentially regret McConnell's filibuster (even if they technically are addressing Reid and McConnell), I don't understand why Reid and the Dems wouldn't pounce and get aggressive, especially since even with the additional five votes, they still don't have enough for cloture. I guess there are more shoes to drop (is this all about Libby's defense crumbling and the fickle finger of fate finally pointing at Cheney?).

2007-01-28T08:00:00.000-05:00

Excerpts from today's Wash Post article on Sen. Warner with my comments in brackets.

I regret that I was not more outspoken" during the Vietnam War. [Come Nov. '08 let's spare Warner any more opportunities for regret.]

The 80-year-old senator won't say whether he will run for a sixth term next year. [Who cares? He clearly doesn't deserve a seventh term. It's been rumored that Warner is going to hold off announcing his retirement until late in the game and throw his support to Tom Davis, an otherwise problematic candidate for the far right, but still a candidate who should be unacceptable to most Virginians. By acting to replace Warner with a good Democrat now we can foil this slick plot.]

"I gotta tell you, I've gotten to that wonderful age in life -- I don't worry," he said. "If you do what in your heart you feel is right, go to sleep. Don't worry. I go to sleep and I don't worry." [Can we at least agree that today's crises call for leadership that's a little less complacent?]

"John Warner understands full well that he is elected to the U.S. Senate, which is a separate and equal branch of government," said Gillespie, who has since become chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia. [Gillespie's words are worthless. Let's hear what Mr. Separation of Powers thinks of Bush's unitary executive power grab.]

Warner not only opposed North's candidacy, he recruited an independent challenger -- former Republican attorney general J. Marshall Coleman -- who helped give the race to then-incumbent Sen. Charles S. Robb (D). Infuriated, Virginia conservatives persuaded former president Ronald Reagan's budget director to challenge Warner in the 1996 Republican primary. [See? There's precedent for Warner's slick maneuvering.]

Warner won easily and in the process cemented what had been an evolving reputation as a moderate, independent politician. [Moderate these days seems to mean anyone who hasn't wholly bought into Bush and Cheney's imperial visions.]

"His support for a redeployment resolution -- and his opposition to the surge policy -- is very important," said U.S. Rep. James P. Moran Jr. (D-Va.), a longtime friend. "It's going to have a very profound impact on the debate." [Uh oh. Let's hope Rep. Moran isn't displaying HIS independent streak.]

Warner's resolution gives some of his Republican colleagues a politically safe position to take on a war that is increasingly unpopular with the American public. "When John Warner decides that these issues have seriousness . . . there are a number of people who come with him," said Warner's new Virginia colleague, Sen. James Webb (D). [Much bigger uh oh. Assuming the Dems nominate a reasonably electable candidate, Webb will have no room to display just how serious he was when he joined the Democrats after a history of such Republican partisanship that he endorsed and voted for Allen over Robb.]

"John Warner can be a patriot and still do something foolish that hurts our foreign policy," Kristol said. [As harsh as I've been to Warner in my comments above, at this point, if I have to choose who's more foolish Warner or Bush, I think I know which way I'll go, and I'll take great glee in observing that self-styled intellectual Kristol has had a career that included being Chief of Staff to Dan Quayle and now is bottoming out with trying to scare people into thinking that if they disagree with the dumbest President in U.S. history they're foolish.]

"Those who say we're not doing the right thing, tell me, what is the obligation of the Senate?" he asked. "Do nothing?" [Then again, don't think I'm willing to accept marginally-less-foolish-than-Bush as some sort of great thing. Can we please have another Senator like Webb who doesn't resort to schoolyard debating tactics like this.]

Sen. Warner, just because the bloodthirsty xenophobic war profiteers are against your proposed resolution doesn't mean that it's right. The right thing to do is something that might actually force a change toward peace. If a toothless resolution like yours passes the Senate, that means the White House is allowing it to pass, which means Karl Rove has decided that, while they'd rather have no resolution, at least, a toothless resolution does nothing to stop the war (or any coming war with Iran). So, as the blood flows ever more, and our Treasury shrinks, and our future becomes less safe, you just keep sleeping soundly, and don't worry about the fact that while you sleep, we're working to make this your last term.

2007-01-20T16:22:00.000-05:00

I'm not saying it'll happen or that she'll deserve it, but how cool would it be if Hillary Clinton were elected and had most of the country behind her?

My earliest political memories are of the '68 Dem Convention in nearby Chicago (age 7 when my father took us to his parents' house in Memphis to avoid the chaos), my friends' older siblings calling the President Tricky Dick and generally implying that Democrats were cooler than Republicans (age 9, backed up my uncool father leaving the Dems for Nixon in '72), and Watergate (age 11).

I remember despairing over Carter emerging as the front runner in '76 and believing that the Democratic Party decided after McGovern's huge defeat that they had no choice but to moderate. Only the nightmarish prospect of Ronald Reagan becoming President made me think that Carter being re-elected would be o.k. Mondale didn't have a prayer. I assumed the country would have given Reagan a third term if they could; so, I was not at all surprised that Dukakis lost.

When the big names like Cuomo opted out for '92, I assumed Bill Clinton would fare no better. I had many misgivings when Bill Clinton was elected in '92. Nevertheless, I remember getting swept up in the hype and the possibilities. Despite all his faults and the damage done to the Democratic Party in Congress during Clinton's two terms, there's no way I'll ever believe it would have been better if he had never been elected or re-elected.

How great did it feel when not only did the Dems fulfill expectations in re-capturing the House last November, but surprised all but the most optimistic Dems in re-capturing the Senate? Certainly, the climate has changed thus far this year. And prospects for continued Democratic control of the Congress that will convene in '09 look very good.

At least a couple of states, New Jersey and ours have state elections this year. If the Dems can keep up the momentum, the prospects of the Dem nominee winning the general election in Nov. 2008 will look very good, especially if Bush can't find some way to counter his massive unpopularity.

If Dems win both the White House and Congress in '08, especially if Hillary is the Dem nominee, they'll have to know the importance of avoiding the mistakes they made with that type of control in '93-'94.

As the Dem Presidential primary candidates begin to challenge each other, let's keep our eyes on the prize. There's always a lot we can do even if we don't hold the levers of power. Imagine, however, the possibilities if we do.

2007-01-13T09:20:00.000-05:00

War in Iraq and looming war with Iran got you down? I recommend a visit to Larry Johnson's posting late yesterday at noquarter.typepad.com. In stark contrast to the blather from the few remaining defenders of Bush and the still timid majority in Congress, Johnson not only asks the right questions, but proposes sensible answers.

It's sad to think that our representatives believed in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 that we'd be unable to focus our need to react on the ones who actually perpetrated those acts. Once the routing of the Taliban was over, even with the escape of Bin Laden, Bush and Congress could have led us to continuing the hunt for terrorists over there while fortifying ourselves over here. Even if one accepts that our own xenophobic overreaction to 9/11 and the lack of any post-Cold War counterweight excuses our eliminating Saddam's regime in Iraq (we were willing, able, and had been trying to effect regime change ever since the first Gulf War anyway) what excuse do we have for believing that we'd end up in any better situation than the one we're in now?

I just don't see how it would make us less safe to admit our mistake and move our troops out of Iraq. If, as Johnson suggests, we need to keep some kind of presence either in Iraq or in the neighborhood to deter Iran and/or facilitate our reaction to aggression, I guess I could accept that. But it should be obvious that saying we must "succeed" in Iraq only begs the question of what success means. Do we have to stay until the various factions start to resolve their disputes peacefully? Do we have to stay until Iraq's neighbors demonstrate a respect for Iraq's inviolable sovereignty? Would even a doubling or tripling of our presence significantly hasten those outcomes?

Our representatives should be daring to ask those questions of us and when they see how quickly and overwhelmingly we reject as fantasy that definition of success in Iraq, they'll respond as they should have almost four years ago. Our country, our system, our way of life has survived much worse than having to retreat from Iraq. If Bush won't lead us out of this wilderness, we have legal and non-violent ways of replacing him with someone who will.

2007-01-11T17:30:00.000-05:00

Well, it looks like my new mission will be to support Chap Petersen in his effort to defeat Jeannemarie Devolites Davis in her bid for re-election to the Virginia Senate. I assume Dave Marsden will run for re-election to his seat in the House of Delegates, and I've heard of no Republicans announcing they will challenge him. If that situation holds, I'll be able to devote all my energy to the state Senate race. I'm still very much not over the re-election of Tom Davis to the U.S. House of Representatives. It boggles my mind how many voters in my U.S. congressional district, VA-11, voted for Tim Kaine, Leslie Byrne, Creigh Deeds, and Dave Marsden in 2005, and in 2006 voted for Jim Webb and voted "no" on the definition of marriage amendment and still voted for Tom Davis. I think getting these voters to abandon Ms. Davis in favor of Mr. Petersen should be a lot easier than it was to convince them to take a chance on Andy Hurst. Tom Davis has already shamed us in his first votes in the new Congress, and as predicted, even if he were to be a better voter, he's in the minority now and considerably less powerful. Now we hear that he'll be continuing his lousy job of representing us by devoting his time and energy for the National Republican Campaign Committee, trying to get other political hacks elected or re-elected. It's also quite possible he'll use this post to again help his wife in her state race. I'm trying to do more research on that. You can be sure I'll be scrutinizing Ms. Davis's votes, conduct, and campaign closely as the year progresses. As the name states, watch this space.

2006-11-12T10:51:00.000-05:00

McCain is soft spoken and humbled. He told Tim Russert on Meet the Press this morning that his position is "pretty much" more troops or get out in the "critical" and "crucial" next few months, although he actually used the word "nuanced" to caveat Russert's formulation. Now, McCain can get away with using the word nuanced while Kerry couldn't, but I don't think there's any way we're sending more troops at all, let alone in the next few months.

I predict McCain won't run.

I further predict that if Hillary Clinton does run, she will have to decide by early next year at the latest and, given the climate, she is smart enough to know she'll have to be fully supportive of, even a leader of, the phased withdrawal option.

Clinton/Obama looks like a winning ticket to me.

2006-11-12T10:04:00.000-05:00

Let's talk Iraq. Rumsfeld is out. Cheney remains. This morning President Bush's Chief of Staff, Josh Bolten, told George Stephanopolous on This Week that a "full speed ahead" policy in Iraq can include a willingness to constantly change tactics. I'm no nautical expert, but wouldn't the most likely outcome of this "strategy" be capsize? Seriously, Bolten followed Senators Biden and Levin, both of whom said their first priority would be to change course by calling for a phased withdrawal within months and the convening of some sort of non-U.S.-led multinational group to help stabilize Iraq diplomatically.

It seems like the Bush Administration's only problem with signing on to something like the Biden/Levin approach would be if it included a "fixed" timetable for withdrawal. Even the humbled neo-cons are no longer uttering "cut and run" in an effort to besmirch the Administration's critics. Bill Kristol on Fox News Sunday instead described the choice as pursuing victory and "cutting our losses." But, as Kristol acknowledged, it was clear which way the Administration was leaning in its move to swap Gates for Rumsfeld.

I've never cared much for labels; so, I have little patience for what to call where we're heading in Iraq: something less than "victory," but something more than "defeat." I predict President Bush will cooperate with Democrats to salvage his legacy. I'm not sure why the re-sent the Bolton nomination to the Senate. Perhaps in the tumultuous aftermath of the elections and Rumsfeld's ouster, the remaining die hards, like Cheney and Bolton, need some token bones thrown their way to demonstrate that it may still be possible for them to save face.

If I'm wrong, however, and the die hards are die nevers, and if Bush throws his lot with them and abandons any attempt to salvage his legacy, I fully expect investigations, impeachment, and war crimes prosecutions.

I'm off to watch McCain on Meet the Press. More later.

2006-11-12T07:45:00.000-05:00

Well, damn! Somehow, I made the blogroll over at vapoliticalblogs.com. I'm not sure how this happened. I wanted it to happen before the elections and assumed the fact that it didn't meant I had to do something myself to make it happen. Anyway, I was getting anxious about changing my URL as obsolete. I hung onto it, because I haven't yet decided what to re-re-dedicate this blog to. Now, I have another reason. I can only hope my being on vapoliticalblogs.com's blogroll means I'll attract more visitors. So, consider this an open thread. I'm entertaining suggestions for the next mission of this blog. Thanks.

2006-11-11T07:43:00.000-05:00

Uh, oh, Tom. You better hope Chairman Waxman doesn't decide to begin cleaning house too close to home.

"The Democratic congressman who will investigate the Bush administration's running of the government says there are so many areas of possible wrongdoing, his biggest problem will be deciding which ones to pursue. 'I'm going to have an interesting time because the Government Reform Committee has jurisdiction over everything,' Waxman said Friday, three days after his party's capture of Congress put him in line to chair the panel. 'The most difficult thing will be to pick and choose.' Waxman complained that Republicans, while in power, shut Democrats out of decision-making and abdicated oversight responsibilities, focusing only on maintaining their own power. In contrast to the many investigations the GOP launched of the Clinton administration, 'when Bush came into power there wasn't a scandal too big for them to ignore,' Waxman said."

2006-11-08T06:04:00.000-05:00

To the eligible voters of our district who allowed this tragedy, shame on you.

To Tom Davis who has governed badly and campaigned disgustingly, you are going to wish you'd lost.

To Andy Hurst who stepped up, challenged the bad guys, and campaigned heroically, bless you.

To the people who supported and/or voted for Hurst, we'll get 'em next time.

Stay tuned for the re-re-dedication of this blog....

2006-11-07T05:47:00.000-05:00

vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst vote Hurst 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2006-11-04T09:31:00.000-05:00

It is becoming increasingly clear to just about everyone except Bush that the war in Iraq is a disaster. It's tragic that more people didn't get this before the 2004 election. Tuesday's elections represent an important opportunity to tell Bush that immediate change is imperative. Even if you prefer Davis over Hurst, for whatever reason (except for those few who still support Bush's folly), you MUST do the right thing and vote for Hurst. You do not want to be on the wrong side of this issue. If Saddam Hussein is convicted and sentenced to death tomorrow, the chaos and carnage will be ratcheted up even further. Everyday we remain in Iraq is inexcusable. Bush must be stopped. An overwhelming Democratic victory on Tuesday will embolden the last few Republican stalwarts who, as was done in Nixon's final days, will privately tell Bush enough is enough. We don't need investigations. We don't need impeachment. We definitely can't wait for January 20, 2009. Please vote for Hurst.

2006-10-30T17:27:00.000-05:00

I sent the following to the Washington Post this morning. I encourage other subscribers to do the same.

This message is to immediately cancel my subscription to The Washington Post. I am canceling, because of this morning's endorsement of Tom Davis for re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives for the 11th District of Virginia.

The Post's coverage of this race has been appalling. Why should the voters of VA-11 have to wait for a scandal or some already known challenger to knock off an incumbent? Tom Davis likely will be in the minority in the next Congress, making him far less effective at both representing his constituents and delivering for his constituents. Andy Hurst only lacks experience. It should be readily apparent whether the aptitude he's displayed on the campaign trail can translate into effective office holding. The time for change is now, not after bad things start happening.

I also disagree with your endorsement of Wolf for VA-10. Polls there show that Feder has a good chance of knocking off Wolf. Why can't The Washington Post be a leader instead of a late follower?

You do your readers a great disservice in your coverage of local politics and your endorsements. That is why I can no longer be a subscriber.

Joel Rutstein

2006-10-25T21:00:00.000-04:00

I prefer to be positive when I can; so, please don't get hung up on this latest post and let it keep you from going to the loving one below; but, I'm feeling rather full of myself and just had to post here a comment I made at gotv.blogspot.com. I guess it's just the nature of this blog to dole out the positive (vote Hurst) and the negative (dump Hurst). If anyone ever does read this stuff and asks, I'd consider labeling the posts to help those who prefer one type over the other.

If the voters of VA-11 give Davis another two years, it won't take long before acute voter's remorse sets in. It was precisely Davis's performance as the head of the NRCC that caused House Republican Leaders to vault him over more senior members of the Gov't Reform Cmte and make Davis Chairman. It was a devil's bargain to begin with and it continues today. Davis chose to spurn his constituents in favor of corrupt leaders. Some of those leaders, like Gingrich and DeLay, have already resigned in disgrace. Next year, Republicans will be in the minority. Hastert probably won't even be Minority Leader; he may not even be in Congress much longer. Jack Abramoff has been given an office by the FBI to facilitate Abramoff's naming of names. Davis has ties to Foley. Davis has ties to Abramoff. Davis has ties to Safavian (is Safavian's wife still working for Davis?). And speaking of wives, how much longer can the feds' attention be kept away from the cozy relationship between Davis, his wife, and her employer? On top of all this traveling on the razor's edge, Davis has the audacity to contemplate succeeding John Warner in the Senate! It's precisely this sort of arrogance that preceded the fall of Gingrich and DeLay. In 13 days, the voters of VA-11 have an amazing opportunity to put a quick end to this agonizingly slow political suicide. Moreover, the option to Davis is a fantastically talented, intelligent, and decent person, Andy Hurst. I really hope we don't blow it.

2006-10-25T20:43:00.000-04:00

Another shout out to Bryan at ambivalentmumblings.blogspot.com who posted a great link to a generous guy who's offered to match contributions to Andy Hurst after hearing a very moving testimonial from another guy who apparently is a fellow VA-11 resident.

Please visit Bryan's site or go to http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/25/95134/578.

I dare you to read what's been written and consider what's being offered and not contribute.

And an incredibly huge shout out to Alice at gotv.blogspot.com who continues to post amazing stuff and was kind enough to both cut-and-paste a post of mine from here and encourage her readers to visit this site for more.

gotv regularly gets picked up by vapoliticalblogs.com and this particular posting was no exception.

I'm still not on their blogroll, but I really shouldn't get greedy.

This is about electing Andy and ejecting Tom.

Buckle up. These final 13 days are gonna be wild.

2006-10-24T21:13:00.000-04:00

I encourage my readers to visit http://www.ambivalentmumblings.blogspot.com. Bryan Scrafford has posted a very brave and important piece on Tom Davis's hypocrisy.

I warned Davis that he'd pay a price for siding with the devils. The attacks will not stop until Davis either drops out of public life or apologizes and renounces the dark side.

Two weeks from today, the voters of VA-11 will have a very distinct choice to make. Only ignorance and complacency borne of Davis's tainted money advantage could account for any voter not knowing the stark differences between Hurst and Davis.

Andy Hurst clearly is a competent and intelligent person. He has youth and energy on his side. He lives in the district and has children attending public school in the district. If elected, he will likely be a member of the majority party in the House of Representatives. He has none of the baggage that Davis brought with him to Congress and has acquired over six terms.

Davis, by his own rhetoric as he entered Congress as part of Newt Gingrich's class of '94, should not even be on the ballot. Newt Gingrich's self-proclaimed revolutionaries said they believed in term limits. Tom Davis was right there with them, promising he'd serve no more than six terms. But, as we all know, trying for a seventh term is just the latest of many promises Davis has broken.

Every Member of Congress is expected to serve both his or her constituents and the best interests of the country at the same time, all while following the dictates of the law and Constitution. It is insulting to the voters of VA-11 that Davis thinks reciting a laundry list of pork he's delivered to us would make us forget the high price he paid to get that pork.

He was OUR servant when he spat on the law and shredded the Constitution and told Gingrich and DeLay and Hastert that if only they'd give him a little pork, he'd do whatever they asked.

When they asked him as head of the campaign fundraising committee for House Republicans to see that Rep. Foley's seat remained in Republican hands, he did, even as others have said Foley's harrassment of boys was widely known.

When they asked him as Chairman of the Government Reform Committee to subpoena Terry Schiavo and slander Terry's husband, he did.

Gingrich resigned in disgrace. DeLay resigned in disgrace. Just today, Hastert presumably told the House Ethics Committee that he conveniently doesn't remember what two other Members of Congress said they told Hastert about Rep. Foley. The point is it doesn't matter who the next Republican Leader is. They are a completely morally bankrupt bunch and whomever they install would tell Davis to do all sorts of nefarious things and he would. No questions asked.

Davis wants to win a seventh term. Davis wants to do the bidding of his corrupt puppetmasters for another two years. Davis wants to succeed John Warner in the U.S. Senate and knows his only chance of winning a Republican primary in 2008 is to prove he's not an untrustworthy moderate maverick from Northern Virginia as his downstate archconservative rivals will charge.

Next year, Davis will do all he can, including again reaching out to his leaders to have his second wife and $78,000 a year part-time "employee" of Davis's former business partner be re-elected to the Virginia State Senate and maybe succeed him as Representative for VA-11.

Davis's primary allegiances are not to the voters of VA-11, if they ever were. Why in the world does he deserve our votes?

There's absolutely no reason to believe that Andy Hurst won't be able to deliver us the services we need without having to sacrifice his principles. Andy won't be beholden to anyone the way Davis is. Let's give Andy a chance. Let's deny Davis any more chances. If Andy doesn't deliver, you can bet with Davis out of the way, plenty of Democratic challengers will vie for our votes in 2008.

You may think you're playing it safe by voting for Davis. You're not. You've already lost a lot and stand to lose a whole lot more.

On the contrary, the possiblities of gain by voting for change, by voting for Andy Hurst, are tremendous.

Be positive. Be hopeful. Vote for change. Vote for the future. Vote for decency. Vote to send the bad guys a message.

Vote for Andy Hurst!

2006-10-24T20:59:00.000-04:00

--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl

--AZ-01: Rick Renzi

--AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth

--CA-04: John Doolittle

--CA-11: Richard Pombo

--CA-50: Brian Bilbray

--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave

--CO-05: Doug Lamborn

--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell

--CT-04: Christopher Shays

--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan

--FL-16: Joe Negron

--FL-22: Clay Shaw

--ID-01: Bill Sali

--IL-06: Peter Roskam

--IL-10: Mark Kirk

--IL-14: Dennis Hastert

--IN-02: Chris Chocola

--IN-08: John Hostettler

--IA-01: Mike Whalen

--KS-02: Jim Ryun

--KY-03: Anne Northup

--KY-04: Geoff Davis

--MD-Sen: Michael Steele

--MN-01: Gil Gutknecht

--MN-06: Michele Bachmann

--MO-Sen: Jim Talent

--MT-Sen: Conrad Burns

--NV-03: Jon Porter

--NH-02: Charlie Bass

--NJ-07: Mike Ferguson

--NM-01: Heather Wilson

--NY-03: Peter King

--NY-20: John Sweeney

--NY-26: Tom Reynolds

--NY-29: Randy Kuhl

--NC-08: Robin Hayes

--NC-11: Charles Taylor

--OH-01: Steve Chabot

--OH-02: Jean Schmidt

--OH-15: Deborah Pryce

--OH-18: Joy Padgett

--PA-04: Melissa Hart

--PA-07: Curt Weldon

--PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick

--PA-10: Don Sherwood

--RI-Sen: Lincoln Chafee

--TN-Sen: Bob Corker

--VA-Sen: George Allen

--VA-10: Frank Wolf

--WA-Sen: Mike McGavick

--WA-08: Dave Reichert

2006-10-22T09:24:00.000-04:00

Big picture Sunday. Bush pushed his allies in Congress out on a limb on Iraq. Today's New York Times reports that Bush is cutting off that limb. The sources of the leak are anonymous, but members of the Administration have decided that the situation in Iraq is so dire that the downside risk to Republican incumbents and candidates in Nov. 7's elections is outweighed by the long term risks to the Republican Party (and maybe the country and the world if the leakers are being truly patriotic and not just Rovian). If the Democrats make such gains on Nov. 7 such that no amount of spinning can minimize them (and if the leakers are Rovian they may not want to spin it otherwise), I really hope the Democrats seize the initiative and push hard to end the war. Of course, I think the Democrats should be doing this now, but if it takes a political impetus, so be it.

2006-10-17T18:04:00.000-04:00

Why is Tom Davis getting a free pass on Foleygate? Rep. Sue Kelly flipped her lid when someone dared to ask about her time on the Committee that oversees the page program. Davis has to be on a hair trigger with his biggest challenge ever and his Senate dreams slipping away. Someone must ask Davis what he did and said when he handed the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee over to Rep. Reynolds. It's been reported that Reynolds had to contend with pressure from Karl Rove to tell Foley he must stay in Congress to protect the Republican majority, even while Reynolds was getting information on Foley's harassing boys. Reynolds has apologized to the voters in his district and pretty much admitted he should have put the safety of the boys over politics. It's been reported that Foley's troubles long predate Reynolds' being head of the RCCC to the time when Davis was head of the RCCC. What did Davis know and when did he know it? How many times did Davis direct money, support, and pressure to stay to Foley when he knew or should have known that Foley was harassing boys? Make Tom Davis come clean!

2006-10-15T07:45:00.000-04:00

I just read in the comments over at the GOTV blog that Andy Hurst may be able to run a TV ad. That would be nice, especially if it was so good or had some sort of newsworthy message or even a technical gimmick that would cause it to be played or described by the press.

The debate with Hurst, Davis, and Greco that was held at the Gov't Center will be replayed by Cox Cable Ch. 10 one more time on Oct. 21 at 9:30 am. It would also be helpful if someone with the knowhow (unfortunately not me) could make a digital recording of it and post postive Hurst clips and negative Davis clips to YouTube.

The bottom line is Andy needs attention. Anyone who follows the news or local politics or does even a little websurfing already knows that Andy is qualified. I don't think very many potential voters do any of those things. They're going to see Davis's ads, see Davis's signs, and they already are familiar with seeing Davis's name on the ballot for years. If they bother to vote at all, I'm afraid they're going to go with the devil they know, not realizing just how devilish Davis has become and how not devilish at all Andy is.

Sadly, going negative works. This blog was mentioned for the very first time in another blog, FCDC, after I commented at GOTV that Davis had hired disgraced ex-Rep. Ed Shrock to a Staff Director position on a subcommittee of the House Gov't Reform Cmte. I think it's arguably legitimate to publicly ask Davis to ask Schrock if he had any knowledge or information about similarly disgraced ex-Rep. Foley.

2006-10-14T08:09:00.000-04:00

Dear Tom,

I hope you haven't been taking my blog the wrong way. It's certainly been an oversight on my part to omit all the benefits for you if you withdraw from this race and all future races. Tom, I'm not just trying to save VA-11; I'm trying to save you, too. I would have hoped your wife and children would have said something by now. Or maybe they've seen even uglier things than you've shown the public. But surely, I thought, a close friend could have been enlisted to tell you what you need to hear. Alas, it's apparently up to me. How sad. I don't know you. If I did, I'm not at all certain I'd like you. Our politics are quite different. I hope, however, that our fundamental values are close enough that somehow my message will get through to you.

I think it would be useful to revisit the past together to understand how we got where we are. I'm comfortable going way back, but I understand if for now you have trouble going much past the politically correct turning point, Sept. 11, 2001. I completely understand why about half of the electorate were willing to take a chance on George W. Bush. The economy seemed fine. We were at peace, sort of. The biggest complaint by Republicans about Bill Clinton was that he was ashamed to publicly admit cheating on his wife. How silly that all seems in retrospect. Tom, you of all people probably could relate to how difficult it must have been for Clinton to have to juggle being a public figure, being constantly under attack by political enemies, and having to hide a shameful secret. All in all, though, the country must have been pretty happy. I bet even Newt Gingrich wishes he could turn back the clock. I'm sure you and I wish that, too.

In the immediate aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001, despite clear evidence that Bush just may not have been the best President to have at such a time, a significant majority of Americans rallied behind Bush. That's natural. We were in shock. We didn't know if more attacks were on their way. Most rationally, however, we [or to be technically accurate five craven Supreme Court justices] had put Bush in charge, and we really had no choice but to hope for the best.

I won't waste time here debating our military response to Sept. 11, 2001. Even Clinton, for whom I voted twice, was to the right of me on the use of our military. Nevertheless, there is no evidence to support the notion that Americans' blood lust for revenge wasn't completely sated long before you, and yes, way too many Democrats, voted to allow Bush to invade Iraq.

But, Tom, even your vote then isn't enough for me to honestly say that my fellow voters in the 11th should have voted against you in 2004. I didn't vote for you, but I didn't expect you to lose. Nor did I expect Democrats to regain majorities in Congress. I did expect Kerry to win the Presidency, and I do think that had voting irregularities in Ohio not occurred we would have seen a much closer election, possibly with Kerry winning.

Polls show today, however, that big majorities of Americans do not support the President and do not support Republicans. Bush's entire premise for asking voters to give him another four years was the need to stay the course in Iraq. Now that it's become obvious to virtually all Democrats and some key Republicans, like John Warner and even James Baker, that staying the course is wrong, even to the point of making Americans less safe, it's too late to punish Bush. So, on Nov. 7, voters will be looking to punish whomever they can.

Andy Hurst has clearly stated his view that we need to change direction in the war in Iraq. Tom, I see your dilemma. If you do what I hope your heart tells you and join Andy in this, it could seriously hurt your chances to win this race. Independents will think more highly of Andy, and Republicans will become disheartened. But Tom, every day you resist acting on principle, you look more and more like the very career politicians that you and the other Republicans in the Class of '94 claimed should be ousted in favor of your "revolution." Remember Tom? You guys were all about "reform." You even signed on to the notion of term limits. By your own, self-imposed rules, Tom, you shouldn't even be on this year's ballot!

Tom, you may think it'd be better for you to win than to lose. I understand that. In normal circumstances, that would be the case for all politicians. But you've become a willing participant, even a leader, in the Bush-led Republican effort to say post-9/11 these are not normal circumstances. Listen to what Bush's generals have been saying even very recently. There's no end in sight in this War On Terror. Reportedly, the commission headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton will say (sadly, after the election) that victory in Iraq is no longer an option.

Look at what your fellow alleged moderate Chris Shays just did because he's in a much tighter race in Connecticut (where even the Democrats are being driven nearly insane by the position Bush has put us in). Chris Shays in a debate the other day refused to call what our soldiers did at Abu Ghraib torture! Tom, you haven't had to twist as much, because Virginia isn't near as blue as Connecticut, but Virginia, especially Northern Virginia, is becoming bluer. If you think you're getting heat now, just imagine how hot you'll feel in another two years.

Or, perhaps you manage to sleep at night telling yourself that in two years you'll still be on the ballot, not for the 11th District, but for the Senate. Tom, wake up! You're dreaming. Even if Virginia gets no more blue than it is right now, the very way you've had to fend off Andy Hurst by claiming that you've stood up to Bush will doom you in '08. I'm not sure you could even survive a primary, because surely you'd be opposed by someone who says to the rest of Virginia's Republican primary voters that they shouldn't vote for someone who didn't stick by Bush, who is from Northern Virginia, and who barely beat a liberal political novice like Andy Hurst.

Tom, I'm not telling you anything you don't already know. If you do beat Andy on Nov. 7, you're going to immediately tack to the right. You do not want to go there. You will be supporting thousands of more needless deaths in Iraq. You will be supporting further erosion of civil liberties here at home. You will be supporting further enriching of the rich and impoverishment of the poor. You will be supporting discrimination against immigrants who are just chasing the same dream all of our ancestors chased. You will be supporting discrimination against people who only want to be free to privately pursue their sexual preference. You will be leading this country in a very bad direction. You have children. Why would you want them to grow up in a worse place than you did?

Tom, please. I'm begging you. Drop out now.

Sincerely, Joel

2006-10-12T18:53:00.000-04:00

NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!

You know, I was starting to let reality get me down. Davis may win this thing, but he will not come out unbruised, at least if I have anything to do with it.

I knew in my heart that Davis had sold his soul to the devils running the Republican Party, but I couldn't come up with new smoking evidence, until today.

Davis has repaid the very puppetmasters who gave Davis the Chairmanship of the House Government Reform Committee over more senior Members.

I don't want to hear anymore crap from Davis about how he stands up to Bush. He doesn't. He hid like a coward during the vote on the bill to shred the Constitution and allow torture. He panders to the worst instincts of people in calling for a ridiculous wall to keep out the immigrants who don't speak like his base or look like his base. Davis is in favor of amending Virginia's Consitution to define marriage as only being between one man and one woman, because we all know how sacred he thinks the institution of marriage is; just ask his first wife.

Worst of all, Davis has done nothing, NOTHING AT ALL, with all his vaunted influence and power in the Republican hierarchy to stop George Bush's mad murderous folly in Iraq. This alone should make all decent people refuse to ever vote for Davis again.

Today, I learned that Davis is a key participant in a scheme to resurrect former National Security Adviser Sandy Berger's stupid admittedly illegal taking of government documents. Why is Tom Davis wasting our time and taxpayer dollars on something that has already been thoroughly investigated? And, why is Tom Davis doing this now? Obviously, this scheme is another lame attempt by Republicans to dredge up every possible questionable act by Democrats in order to distract from their own misdeeds and generally make the public so disgusted with politicians and Washington that they won't even bother to vote, figuring that they're all a bunch of crooks; so what difference does it make who wins?

Well, it makes a HUGE difference! It makes me sick to think how Davis and his puppetmasters came to power pledging to adhere to a completely phony Contract with America. They want those levers of power to steer money to their friends and patrons. They have NO interest in being appropriate public servants. They don't believe in government. They'd do away with it and give all the power to the illegitimate stupid megalomaniac Bush, and they've already made strides in that direction. Give them another two years, and we might not even see another election in 2008. With Bush's own trusted military commanders saying we'll maintain these troop levels in Iraq for many years to come, do you really think they would trust a President-Elect Clinton to carry out their misguided murderous vision?

Well, it's time to fight slime with slime. Mr. Davis where are you in calling for the resignation of Speaker Hastert? Either Hastert knew and did nothing about Rep. Foley's preying on pages (or ex-pages, in any case very much younger men with whom Foley had no business trying to become intimate), or Hastert is allowing his staff to keep collecting taxpayer-funded paychecks when they kept the information from him.

Mr. Davis, where were you when you were head of the National Republican Campaign Committee? Where were you as a member of the Republican Leadership? Where were you as Chairman of the Government Reform Committee? Did you make deals with Rep. Foley? What did you know? Why didn't you do anything?

Mr. Davis, why did you hire disgraced ex-Rep. Ed Schrock to be the staff director for a subcommittee of your committee? What did he know about Foley? Why didn't he do anything?

Come clean Mr. Davis!

2006-10-08T11:08:00.000-04:00

So, I heard Tom Davis was going to be on Face the Nation this morning and I freaked out. It's only a half-hour show and the other guest was Hastert-apologist Rep. LaHood. I thought maybe Davis would use the platform to call for Hastert to resign. I posted comments to the top post at Not Larry Sabato, a particularly active blog for a Sunday morning. My posts were off-topic, but what the hell. I also e-mailed James Walkinshaw, Hurst's campaign manager, who had kindly returned a message I sent the campaign's website recently urging them to stay on offense about Foleygate and Davis's cowardly silence. I didn't get reactions from either the other commenters at NLS or from Walkinshaw.

But it turned out that Bob Schieffer chose to host two Republican House Members who were disinclined to call for Hastert to step down. It was defense all the way, and Schieffer did a good job of exposing what a weak defense it was. LaHood rattled off other Members that Hastert was close to or appointed, DeLay (LaHood called him Hastert's "best friend"), Cunningham, and Ney, and said when their misdeeds were exposed Hastert demostrated strong leadership and told them they had to go. Schieffer said that Hastert put Cunningham and Ney there in the first place and pointed out the absurdity of ignoring any blame for that while wanting to take credit for dumping them when their continued tenure became untenable. Davis didn't do much better. He conceded that if the election were held today, Dems would retake the majority in the House. He said there are all these other issues (lowest unemployment in the world, record stock market, lower oil prices) that can't get oxygen because of Foleygate, but Davis so obviously omitted Iraq (only the number one real issue apart from Foleygate which is grabbing the headlines because it's new and the people love to talk about sex). Schieffer called Davis on ignoring Iraq. Davis looked very bad. It's a shame if Davis wins, because it'll only be because he has all the name recognition and all the money to run ads and voters in the 11th are too lazy, uneducated about the issues and Hurst, and complacent. If Davis wins, the 11th deserves what it gets. At best, it'll get two more years of lackluster representation by what I hope will be the ranking minority member of the House Gov't Reform Cmte. At worst, Davis will take the "mandate" and try to represent all of VA in the Senate.

2006-10-07T10:45:00.000-04:00

Hangin' in there. Still no breakthrough I've seen for Hurst. I'm hoping Foleygate will have an overall positive effect for Dems. Maybe with the local (and national) spotlight off Allen, Webb will see some benefit in exploiting Foleygate to augment his support in critically important Northern Virginia. I don't know if Webb's campaign is thinking of doing this (or even if anyone ever does this) but why couldn't one build one's own coattails. Throw a little money Andy's way. Anyone driven to the polls to vote for Hurst would certainly vote for Webb higher up on the ballot.

Davis is still pretty tightlipped about Hastert. Over the years, I've noticed Tom's tendency to say some pretty non-party line things about GOP sacred cows like abortion. In today's Post, Davis's named staffer resurrects one of Bush's lowlights in saying "Heckuva job Brownie" in a story about Bush's signing statement reserving the right to ignore Congress's requirement that FEMA Directors actually have prior relevant experience. It's comforting to see that in the wake of Bush's falling poll numbers and Foleygate that Davis is feeling more free to at least sound more like the moderate he needs to pretend to be in order to get re-elected.

I read the endorsement in the latest issue of a local paper called The Chronicle. Interestingly, the paper acknowledged the validity of those seeking change to vote for Hurst. I don't know what The Chronicle said two years ago, but I bet it didn't go that far. Alas, this week, The Chronicle saying it was conflicted, opted in the end to say Davis was "effective" and deserved another two years. Of course, I don't want to overstate the importance of The Chronicle's endorsement, but I'm starting to get the sense that Davis will be re-elected.

In my excitement in starting this blog, I hoped to see that the 11th District really was ready to turn blue enough to dump Davis. I still have hope. My secondary dream was to see Davis dented in order to derail his political future, most importantly the widely held belief that he hopes to succeed Warner in the Senate in '08.

In the end, the principles and values I hold dear are more important than the results in the 11th on Nov. 7. And, I'm confident, the 11th will eventually do the right thing. I must remember that if Hurst does win on Nov. 7, it almost has to mean that Democrats are kicking ass just about everywhere else in the U.S. And, if Hurst loses on Nov. 7, there's still a good chance Davis will be in the minority in the next Congress. Whatever the outcome, I hope I don't forget to thank Andy for fighting the good fight. You can be sure I won't forget to monitor Davis and call him out every time he deserves it.

If Hurst wins, I'm not sure what I'll dedicate this blog to next. If Davis wins, this blog will be re-dedicated to making sure Davis and his ilk fare even worse in 2008.

And, remember Tom; you always can denounce Bush and your leaders, apologize for your misdeeds, and start voting the right way. I dare you to. Make me vote for a Republican for the first time in my life.

2006-10-03T17:43:00.000-04:00

Way to go Andy Hurst!

Davis must account for what he knew about Foley and when he knew it. If he can't prove his innocence, he should resign immediately. If Davis can absolve himself, he has to condemn those who clearly can't, including Hastert. Everyday that Davis doesn't come clean and condemn the bad guys is unacceptable.

The only way Davis should win re-election at this point is if the voters don't really know Andy Hurst, chicken out and vote for the devil they think they know. In this case at this time, however, Davis is likely to be a bigger devil than they ever imagined.

If the 11th District doesn't come through for Andy Hurst on Nov. 7, they deserve all the failed leadership they're going to get.

2006-09-28T12:27:00.000-04:00

Ask Tom Davis what was more important than voting against Bush's pro-torture bill. And if he still hasn't completely freaked out and/or threatened to cut off federal spending for you and your town, go ahead and ask him the questions about Allen below.

2006-09-25T17:37:00.000-04:00

This is gonna be a short obvious one.

Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race. Tie Davis to Allen. Make Davis denounce Allen. Ask Davis if Allen should drop out of the race.

That is all.

2006-09-23T21:13:00.000-04:00

Reportedly, when confronted with his anti-gay policies outside a meeting with local Log Cabin Republicans, Davis lost it. So, apparently we can add thin skin to Tom Davis's vulnerabilities as we head toward the last six weeks of the campaign. Is it possible that Davis is worried, if not that he'll be re-elected, but that his prospects of succeeding John Warner in the Senate have been damaged? It is more imperative now than ever to press Hurst's strengths.

Hurst has a less compromised character.

Hurst can deliver for the 11th, arguably more if the Dems win a majority in the House.

Hurst can be a real agent for badly needed reform.

Hurst's policy positions are more in line with clear majorities on both foreign and domestic policy.

If voters were motivated to do a little research on their own, Hurst would win handily. The Republicans from Bush on down are running on a theme of smear and fear, desperately trying to convince voters that they should just stay home that things can't get better, and if anyone even tries to argue for change they're playing into the hands of our enemies. Just how desperate the Republicans have become is evident by their arguing that after almost six years of inept corrupt Republican government, our troubles should all be blamed on...Bill Clinton?!

All we can do is keep spreading the word. Encourage people to think for themselves. The mainstream media can't be expected to focus on the race in the 11th. Davis can afford to buy many more ads than Hurst. I understand Hurst acquitted himself very well in the debate. Maybe there will be more debates. Cox Cable Channel 10 will be broadcasting the one debate I know of on the following dates and times. I encourage readers of this blog and other bloggers and commenters to publicize these broadcasts, and, again if anyone knows how to record them in a digital format for uploading onto youtube (via dvd recorder?), please please do so.

10/06 @4p

10/07 @930p

10/11 @630p

10/21 @930a

2006-09-19T21:40:00.000-04:00

A commenter wants me to rhyme,
and post about hollywood slime.
She should get her own blog.
Not on mine should she hog
my reader's valuable time.

Yet I promised a post in verse form,
and my feelings for her are quite warm.
So, this post is for her.
With it I am sure
She'll sleep snuggly all night in her dorm.

"Dad," she is apt to protest,
"your post will not lead to my rest."
"In fact, I feel gruff
'bout that personal stuff,
and I live in an apartment, not a dorm.

'night

2006-09-19T18:06:00.000-04:00

Well, I scrolled forward on my Cox cable system to see what it said for ch. 10 tonight and nothing showed about the debate. I contacted the station by phone and e-mail but nothing yet. Some more poking around yielded a Sept. 7 press release from the Fairfax League of Women Voters, a co-sponsor of the debate, that said ch. 10 would be taping the debate for later broadcast. I still may tune in just to see, but it looks like we'll have time to set up a taping, unless someone brings a digital camcorder to the debate. I really hope Hurst takes advantage of this opportunity to knock Davis down a few pegs.

Oh yeah, George Allen today admitted his grandfather was Jewish. No apology for getting all indignant yesterday about having to publicly address it. Nor did he apologize for seeming to say that asking someone whether their grandfather was Jewish was "making aspersions." Instead, he continued to attack the reporter for asking and claiming that his mother's reputation was being impugned. He says his mother wouldn't talk about why her father had been imprisoned by the Nazis and in general wouldn't talk about the past. I read in another blog today about Allen's sister's book, Fifth Quarter, and her telling about her and Allen's mother's seemingly sarcastic attitude toward the people in a church service, calling the cleric a hypocrite, the collection plate holders, vultures, and the sermon about sins, guilt inducing.

I'll probably suspend blogging and commenting on other blogs for the evening, unless I hear some news I can pass along.

2006-09-18T20:22:00.000-04:00

I want to keep focus on tomorrow's crucial debate. Remember go to http://www.hurst2006.blogspot.com for more details. Also, please know that the debate reportedly will be televised on cable channel 10. And, one more time, please please please can someone who knows how record the debate in a digital format that can be uploaded on youtube?

Now that that's out of the way, I just have to use my blog to further advertise George Allen's curious reaction to being asked at today's debate about whether his grandfather was Jewish. Allen seemed encouraged by the audience's immediate booing after the question was asked. [note to audience - WTF? - are you really that careful about respecting Allen's privacy or do you sense that even the suggestion that, heaven forfend, Allen has a Jewish ancestor may hurt his electoral prospects?] Anyway, Allen got all indignant and trumpeted religious freedom. Unfortunately, Allen got a little too open again (remember how he just happened to blurt out a "made up" word to belittle a person of color that just happened to be the same word used to belittle people of color in his mother's native land?) and likened being asked about having a Jewish ancestor to casting "aspersions."

The Virginia blogs are kind of in the middle on this, equally criticizing the questioner and wondering about Allen's feelings about Jews. Consequently, this probably wasn't a knockout blow for his re-election campaign.

In terms of Allen's Presidential prospects though, it should be noted that wonkette has already picked this up as has huffingtonpost.

See for yourself at http://www.wonkette.com.

2006-09-18T18:06:00.000-04:00

o.k. details on tomorrow's debate can be found, probably among many places, at hurst2006.blogspot.com.

I wish I could record the debate in a digital format for uploading on youtube (and everywhere possible).

I implore people who know how to do this to do so. Would a dvd recorder yield an uploadable product?

2006-09-18T17:06:00.000-04:00

All right! I've got my mojo back! Webb did a very good job on Meet the Press yesterday, and I read that unsolicited individual contributions of $100,000 were made to his campaign in the first 24 hours after the debate.

Now, it's time for Hurst to shine!

Tomorrow is a debate with Davis and, thanks to Bryan at ambivalentmumblings.blogspot.com, I've learned that it will be televised by cable channel 10. I know this is available to Cox subscribers. I'll post more later with more details as I learn them.

This is HUGE!!!! Hurst can really make some progress in leveling the playing field.

I encourage everyone who reads this to spread the word.

I also ask that someone who knows how to do these things tapes the debate in a way that will make it uploadable to youtube or somewhere, so that it can be seen by anyone anywhere anytime.

Tell your friends, tell your neighbors, tell the Hurst campaign.

Incumbents have had too many advantages for too long.

2006-09-14T19:50:00.000-04:00

I just posted the paragraph below in the comments at ambivalentmumblings.blogspot.com. For some reason, I can't post comments at Nate's Hurst blog. Nate wrote about the two debates between Hurst and Davis. If I don't get some comment action soon, I may suspend this experiment. Of course, there could be events that prompt me to post, and who knows, maybe I'll come up with a great idea to get Hurst the good free publicity he so badly needs.

If undecided voters can be persuaded to get up and go to a debate, surely they can be persuaded to sit snugly at home and surf the web. I really hope the press and some local tv channel (Channel 8 on cable?) covers the debates. This race ought not to be a contest. Davis may have come to Congress when it wasn't quite so shameful to be a Republican, and he may have been able to dole out just enough constituent service and pander to federal employees to allow him to beat the cannon fodder the Democrats served up. This November could and should be quite different. Andy Hurst is principled, energetic, and can provide a much needed breath of fresh air. Moreover, the national trends are very favorable for Democrats, and even Virginia, especially Northern Virginia, is turning blue. If nothing else, the pragmatic truly independent voter should take into account that Andy would likely be in the majority while Davis would be pouting watching Waxman really do something with the Government Reform Cmte. If the voters return Davis yet again merely because he has more signs in the medians, more ads on tv, more slick crap in our mailboxes, or just because he's the devil they know and they didn't make any effort to discover Andy before election day, they deserve what they get, and what they'll get is two more years of servitude to a corrupt and frankly evil Republican leadership and likely Davis trying to succeed John Warner in the Senate in 2008. C'mon 11th District put a stake (metaphorically speaking) in the heart of Davis.

2006-09-13T18:18:00.000-04:00

Wow! Exciting news! http://www.ambivalentmumblings.blogspot.com has announced an Act Blue initiative on behalf of Hurst. I found out about it from Nate's unofficial Hurst blog (I don't know the URL off the top of my head, but if anyone asks in the comments, I'll look it up for them.).

I commented on the post at ambivalentmumblings and cited a Firedoglake post (http://www.firedoglake.com/2006/09/12/great-news/#more-4459) about the incredibly great Act Blue video "Had Enough" that's being adapted to more and more Dem campaigns. It would be great if someone could do this for Hurst.

This could generate exactly the type of dump-all-incumbent momentum that Hurst needs. Now more than ever - I just saw a slick Davis ad during Hardball.

2006-09-13T17:08:00.000-04:00

Day 2 of the experiment - I'm a little less optimistic today and not just because I only got one comment to my inaugrual post. More on that comment in a bit. Rather, I think the Dems nationally and even the Webb campaign in Virginia are not really going to be able to afford to divert some of their momentum to Hurst. Webb had a pretty good day, because Allen kept the "macaca" story going by again sort of apologizing instead of really apologizing and because some group of vets put up an ad spotlighting Allen's vote against body armor for the troops. On the other hand, Allen's goons are trotting out some old sexist stuff Webb said long before he probably ever thought he'd be running as a Democrat in our more enlightened age. The Webb / Allen race is going to get so nasty that I don't see Allen and the Republicans folding. At least right now I'm just not going to pray for that miracle. And as I said yesterday, I'm not going to pray for the miracle that would doom Davis. Now, it's possible that Allen's taint could get on Davis, but if he's been able to escape the stench of his actual colleagues on the Hill thus far, I don't see how he can't just remain aloof from Allen's troubles. I suppose Davis could be baited into condemning Allen in some way, but I'm guessing he's too smart for that. In fact, given his relative youth, exuberance, and relative political inexperience, I can see Hurst screwing up this way before Davis. To sum up, I think it's still the case that Hurst will need serious money to buy visibility and name recognition, and I have no idea where that money could come from. On the other hand, I still believe there's time for a dump all incumbent meme to catch fire and partly burn Davis and partly suppress turnout of independents who may be otherwise inclined to go with the devil they know. It would take some sort of moral outrage, however, because in the 11th, it's not the economy stupid, the housing market is just a bit cooler than it's recent red hotness, and gas prices are coming down.

Now, on that one comment on last night's post. Please see my reply to fightthepowder in that comment thread. [update - my apologies for posting my reply three times.]

I may come back tonight, but likely I'll not post again for 24 hours, because I can't do this from work. I will check for comments tonight, and I can check for comments at work.

Thanks again for your time and attention.

2006-09-12T21:16:00.000-04:00

This is an experiment. I'm going to indulge my armchair politicking with a focus on a particular race. This would be in lieu of actually volunteering or even associating with the campaign that I hope wins. I'm fully aware I may be talking to myself here, but here goes. My first step after posting this is changing the name of this blog. I'm open to suggestions if you don't like what I pick.

The race is for Virginia's 11th Congressional District. The seat has been held for a bunch of terms by Tom Davis, a Republican, who served in the leadership and is presently Chairman of the House Government Reform Committee. The challenger is Andy Hurst, a youngish attorney who, though a Democratic activist, would be a first-time officeholder if he wins, and I hope he does.

Today is Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2006. The election is eight weeks away. Davis has much more money than Hurst, and, though I haven't seen a recent poll, I'm guessing that Davis would be comfortably ahead, if only because he's won handily before, he's a relatively moderate Republican in a District that is about evenly split (though trending Democratic lately), and he has far greater name recognition.

It seems unlikely that Hurst will win, but a surprisingly close race could seriously dent Davis's future which could include trying to win John Warner's seat in the U.S. Senate if the very old Warner decides to retire in 2008. Hurst does have several factors working in his favor: 1) this is turning out to be a bad year for Republicans both because of Bush's unpopularity and because of corruption problems, even some coming close to Davis; 2) Jim Webb is making a lot of headway in his race to unseat George Allen in the Senate and could provide assistance to Hurst in dollars, appearances, and coattails; and, 3) Hurst just may be a better candidate, but here my bias is definitely showing.

So, what can Hurst do to help himself? Somehow, he needs to become known and seen as a realistic alternative in the face of Davis's experience and greater name recognition which will be pounded home in many more tv ads, signs, and other paid media. Debates will help, and I think there may be at least one.

Last year, I volunteered for a guy running for an open seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. A relatively small geographic area was in play, money and name recognition were about even, and it really seemed that my phone calls and door knocks could make a difference, and they did. I just don't think my doing this for Hurst will matter. I don't think this blog will either, but it's a cheap, easy, and, for me anyway, fun way to try. Thus far, the mainstream Democratic blogosphere (the ones who need to know will know which sites I mean) hasn't given any attention to the Davis/Hurst race. The established Democratic Northern Virginia bloggers are doing their best, but they appear to be preaching to the choir. So, where am I going with this? I'd like to see Hurst hit the big time blogophorically. It's a chicken and egg type thing. Thus far, it seems as if the mainstream Democratic blogosphere is concentrating on races that appear at least a bit winnable. I don't think Hurst will break through unless something significantly changes to make him seem like a possible winner. I'm clueless how to effect such a change as opposed to waiting for a miracle.

The reason why I'm inaugurating this pipe dream tonight is because for some reason the Webb over Allen momentum is building and making the front page of the mainstream Democratic blogosphere. Specifically, Allen's macaca flap is being kept alive and just today the blogosphere has picked up on the inept way Allen has tried to move beyond it, ironically by holding last Saturday an "ethnic" rally. If Allen starts to tank, the spotlight will be focused on Virginia, and even if Hurst has done nothing by himself to excite other dreamers, Davis could start looking like the next juicy target to take down. Ironically, the undecided voters in Virginia 11 may be very resistant to believe that Davis is all that bad, after all they themselves voted for him before, maybe several times. On the other hand, sheep are sheep and though their hearts may not be in it, they could be persuaded that change is imperative. Additionally, others may just be turned off and stay home, leaving the door open for motivated Dems and motivated independents to carry the day.

I'm going to bed tonight feeling a little more optimistic for having done even this small something.

I strongly encourage anyone who reads this to comment on it and spread the word that it exists.

I thank you in advance for feeding my addiction.

2004-02-22T18:00:00.000-05:00

Hello.

This is a big deal for me. It's up to you whether it matters to anyone else. I hope we can find common ground and teach each other, if only by the example of our behavior here.

I've thought of starting a blog like this for quite a while. There's nothing particularly magical about this moment. It's Sunday. I'm stuck at home waiting for some stuff to be delivered.

I thought of "alowin" during my morning commute last week. I like the way it sounds. I like that it begins with an "a." It conjures "allowing," "a lowing," and various other permutations and sound alikes.

I used to get hung up on names and starting dates. I now think that was rationalizing my procrastination. I never did believe deeply in labels or fate, and still don't.

I read somewhere, probably in a book on creativity, that artists don't have their finished product fully formed in their minds. During the creative process, there's give and take between the artist and the work itself. I find this comforting and hope to find it true here.

So, I begin.

Ralph Nader announced his candidacy this morning. It's hard for me to see why this threatens so many people that it's generating so much press. He probably wouldn't get near the support he got in 2000. He's not even running as the Green Party candidate. If he starts to generate positive buzz, it's as likely to be because of the disenchantment with the major party candidates as because of Nader's own stances.

The focus in the Democratic party is on Kerry and Edwards. Edwards doesn't seem to be so different and so preferable to Kerry that there's reason to believe the primary voters who have yet to vote will act differently from the ones who have voted. Kerry doesn't seem to have developed a serious liability that would cause voters who otherwise would vote for him to turn away.

So, for the sake of argument, let's assume Kerry becomes the nominee. With the example of Gore in 2000, it seems pretty easy for Kerry to cut into Nader's support by merely aping the rhetoric. Arguably, Edwards is still standing because of his "two Americas" theme. While Kerry may never have Edwards' common touch and jury appeal, Nader's never been warm and fuzzy. It also appears that Bush wants to be re-elected as a war President and not as a compassionate conservative. Finally, unlike Gore who became a populist late in the campaign, Kerry has been Shrumming for a while.

Well, I just convinced myself that Nader will not be a factor. He may only be a loose end from 2000 that got tied the minute he announced.

But, should I generate any passionate anti-Nader sentiment from those otherwise sympathetic to the left, I'd like you to consider Nader's positions and reflect on whether we'd be better off with a Democratic President in 2005 who didn't even have to nod in Nader's direction. Moreover, I think it's incumbent on those anti-Bush Democrats who are the most anti-Nader to do what they can to invest in the Democratic nominee.

This year's nominee is much better positioned to avoid the pandering to the right that Clinton did in 1992. 1992 also saw Ross Perot's candidacy. Look at Clinton's vote total in 1992. Is it any wonder that the middle class tax cut he campaigned on died before arrival? Is it any wonder that the fight for a humane crime bill and health care reform was abandoned? Are we really supposed to be proud of welfare reform? Do we really believe that it was Rubinomics and not just a favorable business cycle that resulted in budget surpluses and other positive economic indicators?

One of the things I like most about Nader is his proven commitment to his causes every day, not just election day. Someone is going to be inaugurated on January 20, 2005. The opportunity exists right now to signal the leading contenders that the only way to get there is with your votes.

I think the signal Kerry, for example, is getting is that his mandate is to beat Bush. Of course, without beating Bush he can't govern, but you can be sure that the organized, rich, powerful, and influential players in the Democratic party will expect their agenda to be realized on day one of the Kerry Administration.

It seems virtually impossible that there will be enough Democratic Senators plus any brave Republicans (and Jeffords) to prevent Frist from thwarting a President Kerry at every turn.

Unless.

Unless the anti-Bush sentiment that results in a President Kerry is accompanied by pro-Kerry sentiment that extends beyond the traditional honeymoon. We're talking popularity people. Reagan and Clinton (and maybe Edwards) can generate it with a smile. The advantage of an unslick Kerry is the possibility of goodwill that comes from wise and righteous policies.

Of course, there will be naysayers. There will be Gingrich-like bomb throwers. If we're not going to give undue attention to figures on the left like Nader, we must, and we must signal our President, that he ought to treat those on the right like the fringe characters they are. Triangulation got us where we are.

Kerry, or whoever the Democratic nominee turns out to be, has a chance to be the truly unifying candidate that Democrats haven't had in a long time. It shouldn't take another Depression to give us our next FDR. And, if we get that next FDR, it shouldn't take another World War to keep him in office.

The key is pro-activity. It's what prompted me to begin this effort.

Thanks for bearing with this rambling first post.