watch this space
Tuesday, September 12, 2006
This is an experiment. I'm going to indulge my armchair politicking with a focus on a particular race. This would be in lieu of actually volunteering or even associating with the campaign that I hope wins. I'm fully aware I may be talking to myself here, but here goes. My first step after posting this is changing the name of this blog. I'm open to suggestions if you don't like what I pick.
The race is for Virginia's 11th Congressional District. The seat has been held for a bunch of terms by Tom Davis, a Republican, who served in the leadership and is presently Chairman of the House Government Reform Committee. The challenger is Andy Hurst, a youngish attorney who, though a Democratic activist, would be a first-time officeholder if he wins, and I hope he does.
Today is Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2006. The election is eight weeks away. Davis has much more money than Hurst, and, though I haven't seen a recent poll, I'm guessing that Davis would be comfortably ahead, if only because he's won handily before, he's a relatively moderate Republican in a District that is about evenly split (though trending Democratic lately), and he has far greater name recognition.
It seems unlikely that Hurst will win, but a surprisingly close race could seriously dent Davis's future which could include trying to win John Warner's seat in the U.S. Senate if the very old Warner decides to retire in 2008. Hurst does have several factors working in his favor: 1) this is turning out to be a bad year for Republicans both because of Bush's unpopularity and because of corruption problems, even some coming close to Davis; 2) Jim Webb is making a lot of headway in his race to unseat George Allen in the Senate and could provide assistance to Hurst in dollars, appearances, and coattails; and, 3) Hurst just may be a better candidate, but here my bias is definitely showing.
So, what can Hurst do to help himself? Somehow, he needs to become known and seen as a realistic alternative in the face of Davis's experience and greater name recognition which will be pounded home in many more tv ads, signs, and other paid media. Debates will help, and I think there may be at least one.
Last year, I volunteered for a guy running for an open seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. A relatively small geographic area was in play, money and name recognition were about even, and it really seemed that my phone calls and door knocks could make a difference, and they did. I just don't think my doing this for Hurst will matter. I don't think this blog will either, but it's a cheap, easy, and, for me anyway, fun way to try. Thus far, the mainstream Democratic blogosphere (the ones who need to know will know which sites I mean) hasn't given any attention to the Davis/Hurst race. The established Democratic Northern Virginia bloggers are doing their best, but they appear to be preaching to the choir. So, where am I going with this? I'd like to see Hurst hit the big time blogophorically. It's a chicken and egg type thing. Thus far, it seems as if the mainstream Democratic blogosphere is concentrating on races that appear at least a bit winnable. I don't think Hurst will break through unless something significantly changes to make him seem like a possible winner. I'm clueless how to effect such a change as opposed to waiting for a miracle.
The reason why I'm inaugurating this pipe dream tonight is because for some reason the Webb over Allen momentum is building and making the front page of the mainstream Democratic blogosphere. Specifically, Allen's macaca flap is being kept alive and just today the blogosphere has picked up on the inept way Allen has tried to move beyond it, ironically by holding last Saturday an "ethnic" rally. If Allen starts to tank, the spotlight will be focused on Virginia, and even if Hurst has done nothing by himself to excite other dreamers, Davis could start looking like the next juicy target to take down. Ironically, the undecided voters in Virginia 11 may be very resistant to believe that Davis is all that bad, after all they themselves voted for him before, maybe several times. On the other hand, sheep are sheep and though their hearts may not be in it, they could be persuaded that change is imperative. Additionally, others may just be turned off and stay home, leaving the door open for motivated Dems and motivated independents to carry the day.
I'm going to bed tonight feeling a little more optimistic for having done even this small something.
I strongly encourage anyone who reads this to comment on it and spread the word that it exists.
I thank you in advance for feeding my addiction.
The race is for Virginia's 11th Congressional District. The seat has been held for a bunch of terms by Tom Davis, a Republican, who served in the leadership and is presently Chairman of the House Government Reform Committee. The challenger is Andy Hurst, a youngish attorney who, though a Democratic activist, would be a first-time officeholder if he wins, and I hope he does.
Today is Tuesday, Sept. 12, 2006. The election is eight weeks away. Davis has much more money than Hurst, and, though I haven't seen a recent poll, I'm guessing that Davis would be comfortably ahead, if only because he's won handily before, he's a relatively moderate Republican in a District that is about evenly split (though trending Democratic lately), and he has far greater name recognition.
It seems unlikely that Hurst will win, but a surprisingly close race could seriously dent Davis's future which could include trying to win John Warner's seat in the U.S. Senate if the very old Warner decides to retire in 2008. Hurst does have several factors working in his favor: 1) this is turning out to be a bad year for Republicans both because of Bush's unpopularity and because of corruption problems, even some coming close to Davis; 2) Jim Webb is making a lot of headway in his race to unseat George Allen in the Senate and could provide assistance to Hurst in dollars, appearances, and coattails; and, 3) Hurst just may be a better candidate, but here my bias is definitely showing.
So, what can Hurst do to help himself? Somehow, he needs to become known and seen as a realistic alternative in the face of Davis's experience and greater name recognition which will be pounded home in many more tv ads, signs, and other paid media. Debates will help, and I think there may be at least one.
Last year, I volunteered for a guy running for an open seat in the Virginia House of Delegates. A relatively small geographic area was in play, money and name recognition were about even, and it really seemed that my phone calls and door knocks could make a difference, and they did. I just don't think my doing this for Hurst will matter. I don't think this blog will either, but it's a cheap, easy, and, for me anyway, fun way to try. Thus far, the mainstream Democratic blogosphere (the ones who need to know will know which sites I mean) hasn't given any attention to the Davis/Hurst race. The established Democratic Northern Virginia bloggers are doing their best, but they appear to be preaching to the choir. So, where am I going with this? I'd like to see Hurst hit the big time blogophorically. It's a chicken and egg type thing. Thus far, it seems as if the mainstream Democratic blogosphere is concentrating on races that appear at least a bit winnable. I don't think Hurst will break through unless something significantly changes to make him seem like a possible winner. I'm clueless how to effect such a change as opposed to waiting for a miracle.
The reason why I'm inaugurating this pipe dream tonight is because for some reason the Webb over Allen momentum is building and making the front page of the mainstream Democratic blogosphere. Specifically, Allen's macaca flap is being kept alive and just today the blogosphere has picked up on the inept way Allen has tried to move beyond it, ironically by holding last Saturday an "ethnic" rally. If Allen starts to tank, the spotlight will be focused on Virginia, and even if Hurst has done nothing by himself to excite other dreamers, Davis could start looking like the next juicy target to take down. Ironically, the undecided voters in Virginia 11 may be very resistant to believe that Davis is all that bad, after all they themselves voted for him before, maybe several times. On the other hand, sheep are sheep and though their hearts may not be in it, they could be persuaded that change is imperative. Additionally, others may just be turned off and stay home, leaving the door open for motivated Dems and motivated independents to carry the day.
I'm going to bed tonight feeling a little more optimistic for having done even this small something.
I strongly encourage anyone who reads this to comment on it and spread the word that it exists.
I thank you in advance for feeding my addiction.
Comments:
Fightthepowder, in reply to your comment, I like your energy, but I don't think you get what I'm trying to do here.
I do think the main onus should be on Hurst, after all he's the one who's applying for the job and will be casting the votes if he wins.
Even if Hurst had a platform 100% in accord with my views and could articulate it even better than I could, I still think it would take a level of brand awareness and name recognition that Hurst would have to buy and can't afford in order to appear to the lazy ignorant voters as a realistic alternative to Davis who for all his horribleness has managed to appear to be good enough for the district and certainly nowhere near the embarrassment of a lot of other Republicans.
I definitely would not advise Hurst to throw a hail mary, even if he's way down in the polls on the day before the election. Regardless of Hurst's political future, win or lose, the reputation of Virginia's Democrats who nominated Hurst is at stake. If Hurst can take the high road, he should.
Speaking of Mr. Hail Mary, I do have a soft spot for Nader, but candidly if I knew how to delete that post from a couple of years ago I would. My Naderphilia is a pretty rare affliction, and there's no need to have it distract from the blog's current mission to elect Hurst and eject Davis.
On the other hand, if I knew how to link to Hurst's campaign, I still wouldn't. For one thing, I'm trying to stay completely independent of the campaign. For another, I don't think the kind of money Hurst needs can come from individuals. If there were a groundswell of individual support with actual dollars that could persuade the Dem party to fork over some cash, I wouldn't need to have this quixotic blog.
Now, call me crazy, but I think you, fightthepowder, might have more influence with Rahm than I at this point.
Thanks for your comment, thanks for anything you can do with Rahm, and thanks in advance for future comments.
I do think the main onus should be on Hurst, after all he's the one who's applying for the job and will be casting the votes if he wins.
Even if Hurst had a platform 100% in accord with my views and could articulate it even better than I could, I still think it would take a level of brand awareness and name recognition that Hurst would have to buy and can't afford in order to appear to the lazy ignorant voters as a realistic alternative to Davis who for all his horribleness has managed to appear to be good enough for the district and certainly nowhere near the embarrassment of a lot of other Republicans.
I definitely would not advise Hurst to throw a hail mary, even if he's way down in the polls on the day before the election. Regardless of Hurst's political future, win or lose, the reputation of Virginia's Democrats who nominated Hurst is at stake. If Hurst can take the high road, he should.
Speaking of Mr. Hail Mary, I do have a soft spot for Nader, but candidly if I knew how to delete that post from a couple of years ago I would. My Naderphilia is a pretty rare affliction, and there's no need to have it distract from the blog's current mission to elect Hurst and eject Davis.
On the other hand, if I knew how to link to Hurst's campaign, I still wouldn't. For one thing, I'm trying to stay completely independent of the campaign. For another, I don't think the kind of money Hurst needs can come from individuals. If there were a groundswell of individual support with actual dollars that could persuade the Dem party to fork over some cash, I wouldn't need to have this quixotic blog.
Now, call me crazy, but I think you, fightthepowder, might have more influence with Rahm than I at this point.
Thanks for your comment, thanks for anything you can do with Rahm, and thanks in advance for future comments.
Fightthepowder, in reply to your comment, I like your energy, but I don't think you get what I'm trying to do here.
I do think the main onus should be on Hurst, after all he's the one who's applying for the job and will be casting the votes if he wins.
Even if Hurst had a platform 100% in accord with my views and could articulate it even better than I could, I still think it would take a level of brand awareness and name recognition that Hurst would have to buy and can't afford in order to appear to the lazy ignorant voters as a realistic alternative to Davis who for all his horribleness has managed to appear to be good enough for the district and certainly nowhere near the embarrassment of a lot of other Republicans.
I definitely would not advise Hurst to throw a hail mary, even if he's way down in the polls on the day before the election. Regardless of Hurst's political future, win or lose, the reputation of Virginia's Democrats who nominated Hurst is at stake. If Hurst can take the high road, he should.
Speaking of Mr. Hail Mary, I do have a soft spot for Nader, but candidly if I knew how to delete that post from a couple of years ago I would. My Naderphilia is a pretty rare affliction, and there's no need to have it distract from the blog's current mission to elect Hurst and eject Davis.
On the other hand, if I knew how to link to Hurst's campaign, I still wouldn't. For one thing, I'm trying to stay completely independent of the campaign. For another, I don't think the kind of money Hurst needs can come from individuals. If there were a groundswell of individual support with actual dollars that could persuade the Dem party to fork over some cash, I wouldn't need to have this quixotic blog.
Now, call me crazy, but I think you, fightthepowder, might have more influence with Rahm than I at this point.
Thanks for your comment, thanks for anything you can do with Rahm, and thanks in advance for future comments.
I do think the main onus should be on Hurst, after all he's the one who's applying for the job and will be casting the votes if he wins.
Even if Hurst had a platform 100% in accord with my views and could articulate it even better than I could, I still think it would take a level of brand awareness and name recognition that Hurst would have to buy and can't afford in order to appear to the lazy ignorant voters as a realistic alternative to Davis who for all his horribleness has managed to appear to be good enough for the district and certainly nowhere near the embarrassment of a lot of other Republicans.
I definitely would not advise Hurst to throw a hail mary, even if he's way down in the polls on the day before the election. Regardless of Hurst's political future, win or lose, the reputation of Virginia's Democrats who nominated Hurst is at stake. If Hurst can take the high road, he should.
Speaking of Mr. Hail Mary, I do have a soft spot for Nader, but candidly if I knew how to delete that post from a couple of years ago I would. My Naderphilia is a pretty rare affliction, and there's no need to have it distract from the blog's current mission to elect Hurst and eject Davis.
On the other hand, if I knew how to link to Hurst's campaign, I still wouldn't. For one thing, I'm trying to stay completely independent of the campaign. For another, I don't think the kind of money Hurst needs can come from individuals. If there were a groundswell of individual support with actual dollars that could persuade the Dem party to fork over some cash, I wouldn't need to have this quixotic blog.
Now, call me crazy, but I think you, fightthepowder, might have more influence with Rahm than I at this point.
Thanks for your comment, thanks for anything you can do with Rahm, and thanks in advance for future comments.
Fightthepowder, in reply to your comment, I like your energy, but I don't think you get what I'm trying to do here.
I do think the main onus should be on Hurst, after all he's the one who's applying for the job and will be casting the votes if he wins.
Even if Hurst had a platform 100% in accord with my views and could articulate it even better than I could, I still think it would take a level of brand awareness and name recognition that Hurst would have to buy and can't afford in order to appear to the lazy ignorant voters as a realistic alternative to Davis who for all his horribleness has managed to appear to be good enough for the district and certainly nowhere near the embarrassment of a lot of other Republicans.
I definitely would not advise Hurst to throw a hail mary, even if he's way down in the polls on the day before the election. Regardless of Hurst's political future, win or lose, the reputation of Virginia's Democrats who nominated Hurst is at stake. If Hurst can take the high road, he should.
Speaking of Mr. Hail Mary, I do have a soft spot for Nader, but candidly if I knew how to delete that post from a couple of years ago I would. My Naderphilia is a pretty rare affliction, and there's no need to have it distract from the blog's current mission to elect Hurst and eject Davis.
On the other hand, if I knew how to link to Hurst's campaign, I still wouldn't. For one thing, I'm trying to stay completely independent of the campaign. For another, I don't think the kind of money Hurst needs can come from individuals. If there were a groundswell of individual support with actual dollars that could persuade the Dem party to fork over some cash, I wouldn't need to have this quixotic blog.
Now, call me crazy, but I think you, fightthepowder, might have more influence with Rahm than I at this point.
Thanks for your comment, thanks for anything you can do with Rahm, and thanks in advance for future comments.
Post a Comment
I do think the main onus should be on Hurst, after all he's the one who's applying for the job and will be casting the votes if he wins.
Even if Hurst had a platform 100% in accord with my views and could articulate it even better than I could, I still think it would take a level of brand awareness and name recognition that Hurst would have to buy and can't afford in order to appear to the lazy ignorant voters as a realistic alternative to Davis who for all his horribleness has managed to appear to be good enough for the district and certainly nowhere near the embarrassment of a lot of other Republicans.
I definitely would not advise Hurst to throw a hail mary, even if he's way down in the polls on the day before the election. Regardless of Hurst's political future, win or lose, the reputation of Virginia's Democrats who nominated Hurst is at stake. If Hurst can take the high road, he should.
Speaking of Mr. Hail Mary, I do have a soft spot for Nader, but candidly if I knew how to delete that post from a couple of years ago I would. My Naderphilia is a pretty rare affliction, and there's no need to have it distract from the blog's current mission to elect Hurst and eject Davis.
On the other hand, if I knew how to link to Hurst's campaign, I still wouldn't. For one thing, I'm trying to stay completely independent of the campaign. For another, I don't think the kind of money Hurst needs can come from individuals. If there were a groundswell of individual support with actual dollars that could persuade the Dem party to fork over some cash, I wouldn't need to have this quixotic blog.
Now, call me crazy, but I think you, fightthepowder, might have more influence with Rahm than I at this point.
Thanks for your comment, thanks for anything you can do with Rahm, and thanks in advance for future comments.
